Traditional risk management is built to manage what is already known. Risk registers capture risks whose impacts and likelihoods can be estimated based on historical data, past experience and existing categories.
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Strategic foresight professionals are no strangers to scanning. Every week brings new reports, articles, patents, press releases, and signals of change.
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Presentation slides are not the enemy of sustainable foresight, but they can create a perception of “final delivery”, whereas the main benefits are received only after the discussions and decisions made on the topics introduced via slide set.
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Most teams assume they will know when it is time to upgrade their foresight setup. They expect a dramatic moment: a missed disruption, a boardroom surprise, a strategic bet that aged badly. However, it is usually much quieter than that.
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AI can generate a trend report in ten minutes. Your leadership can ignore it in ten seconds.
That’s the uncomfortable truth many foresight, strategy, and innovation teams are discovering right now. Agentic AI has transformed horizon scanning, weak-signal detection, and trend drafting. What once took weeks can now happen overnight.
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Organizations often say they “do foresight.” What they usually mean is that they collect trends, build or purchase scenario reports, and run ad-hoc foresight workshops—either internally or with the help of consultants—but only when they have the time and resources. It is not unusual for foresight to be treated as something you do when you have spare capacity, or merely to tick a box on a long to-do list crowded with other priorities. Worse still, it is sometimes pursued only after a crisis has already struck and caused damage.
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(or why being “right” about the future is the wrong goal)
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AI is changing foresight. What once took weeks of manual scanning and analysis can now be done in a fraction of the time. But speed is not enough. In foresight, the real currency is trust.
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Every foresight professional faces the same challenge: how to build a practice that is consistent, credible, and impactful. Tools alone won’t do it. Neither will inspirational speeches about “thinking futures.”
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