Scenario planning guide: how to think and plan for multiple futures

Critical uncertainties are the factors that could shape the future in the most impactful and unpredictable ways. They are the “wild cards” that can shift direction, disrupt markets, or redefine...

Scenario planning is one of the most powerful tools for thinking about the future – but it only works when everyone speaks the same language. A shared understanding of key terms ensures that strategy...

Scenario planning only creates impact when the results are written and shared in a way that others can understand and remember. Turning abstract axes or frameworks into vivid, named stories...

The 2x2 scenario planning matrix is one of the most practical and popular tools for exploring alternative futures. It helps teams visualize how different combinations of critical uncertainties might...

Scenario planning workshops often spark new ideas and perspectives, but without deliberate follow-up, their impact fades quickly. Keeping scenario planning alive means transforming it from a one-time...

A scenario planning workshop is a structured session designed to explore how the future might unfold and what different outcomes could mean for an organization. It enables teams to move beyond...

Scenario planning is a structured way to explore how the future might unfold and what those changes could mean for an organization. Instead of predicting one outcome, it helps prepare for several...

Scenario planning has become an essential capability for organizations that want to thrive amid uncertainty. Few examples illustrate this better than PostNL, the Dutch logistics company that used...

Signposts are observable indicators that show whether the world is moving toward one scenario or another. Triggers are specific events or thresholds that, once reached, signal that action or...

Keeping scenarios relevant over time is one of the hardest parts of foresight work. Once scenarios are built, the world doesn’t stand still: trends shift, new signals emerge, and assumptions change. ...

Scenario planning is one of the most effective ways to explore different futures and prepare for change. Yet turning data, trends, and insights into clear scenarios can be complex. FIBRES simplifies...

The most effective link between scenario planning and strategic decision-making lies not in alignment but in integration: embedding scenarios into the logic, rhythm, and data flows of real strategic...

Most foresight professionals find that three to four scenarios offer the right balance between variety and clarity.

Scenario planning helps organizations prepare for uncertainty and make better strategic choices. Yet many initiatives fall short – producing interesting stories that never influence real decisions....