The must-know glossary for anyone starting scenario planning

Scenario planning is one of the most powerful tools for thinking about the future – but it only works when everyone speaks the same language. A shared understanding of key terms ensures that strategy teams, foresight experts, and stakeholders can collaborate effectively and make sense of change together.

Core scenario planning concepts

Scenario

A plausible and internally consistent story about how the future might unfold. Scenarios explore different outcomes based on key uncertainties rather than predicting a single future.

Driving forces

The underlying trends, shifts, and developments shaping the future. These can include technology, policy, society, economy, and environment — the building blocks of any scenario.

Critical uncertainties

Factors that could move in very different directions and have a major impact on outcomes. They form the foundation for defining the axes of your scenario matrix.

Predetermined elements

Trends or events that are already in motion and unlikely to change significantly. They provide a stable baseline for all scenarios.

Terms that bring scenarios to life

Scenario logics and matrix

The structural framework used to differentiate scenarios. Often built as a 2×2 matrix based on two critical uncertainties, helping to visualize four possible futures.

Scenario narratives

Descriptive stories that bring each scenario to life. They show how key forces interact and what the future could look like for people, markets, or organizations.

Signposts and indicators

Observable signals that reveal which scenario might be unfolding. These are tracked continuously to sense early signs of change.

Turning insight into action

Wind tunneling

A testing process where you “fly” your current strategy through each scenario to see how well it holds up — revealing weaknesses or opportunities. It’s like stress-testing your strategy against multiple futures.

Decision triggers

Predefined thresholds or events that call for a specific action or strategy adjustment when a trend crosses a critical point.

Strategic options

The possible moves or initiatives available to an organization under different scenarios. These could include new investments, partnerships, or policy shifts designed to take advantage of emerging opportunities.

Robust strategy

A strategy that performs reasonably well across all scenarios, rather than being optimal in just one. Robustness is about resilience under uncertainty. Robust strategies remain effective even when the future takes an unexpected turn.

Scenario monitoring

The ongoing practice of tracking signposts and updating strategies as new information emerges.

How they fit together

In practice, you might:

• Identify driving forces and critical uncertainties.
• Build scenarios and write narratives.
• Use wind tunneling to test strategic options.
• Define signposts and decision triggers.
• Set up a monitoring system to track and act on change.