What are real-world scenario planning examples that actually work? Case PostNL

Scenario planning has become an essential capability for organizations that want to thrive amid uncertainty. Few examples illustrate this better than PostNL, the Dutch logistics company that used structured foresight to reshape its strategy and strengthen its readiness for the future.

Why did PostNL turn to scenario planning?

In 2021, PostNL’s cross-border e-commerce unit faced accelerating market shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic had transformed consumer behavior, trade flows, and logistics operations almost overnight. Traditional forecasting methods, based on extrapolating the past, no longer felt reliable.

Recognizing this, Strategy Manager Thijs Coenraadts and his team began exploring long-term scenarios to test how the business might evolve under different futures. The goal was simple but ambitious: move from reacting to change to anticipating it.

How did PostNL build its foresight process from scratch?

With no prior experience in foresight, the team started by researching external signals of change. They analyzed global and regional trends, engaged experts and stakeholders, and identified forces shaping the next decade.

From this foundation, they created four future scenarios based on two key uncertainties: economic growth versus stagnation, and market consolidation versus decentralization. One of these, Support Your Locals, imagined a fragmented world where regions prioritized self-sufficiency over global trade. Initially deemed unlikely, it has since become a striking reflection of today’s environment.

How were scenarios turned into action?

Each scenario was analyzed for opportunities, threats, and “no-regret” moves, that is, strategic choices valuable in any future. This process not only clarified PostNL’s strategic options but also strengthened internal alignment around external change.

When market realities began mirroring the "Support Your Locals" scenario –  a clear case of triggering – PostNL was ready. The foresight work directly informed a renewed strategic direction emphasizing European growth and resilience in regional markets.

How did PostNL scale and sustain foresight?

Building the first set of scenarios took months of dedicated effort from a small team. To make foresight continuous rather than episodic, PostNL implemented FIBRES, a foresight platform that enabled ongoing trend tracking, scenario updates, and shared access across teams.

FIBRES allowed the organization to keep foresight visible and participatory, embedding it into dashboards, meetings, and everyday decision-making. What began as a strategy exercise evolved into a company-wide mindset.

What can other foresight professionals learn from PostNL?

PostNL’s experience offers several lessons for strategy and foresight leaders:

• Start small but act deliberately. Effective foresight begins with curiosity, not expertise.
• Integrate foresight into strategy. Scenarios gain value when they inform real decisions.
• Make it participatory. When foresight is visible to all, alignment follows naturally.
• Use storytelling. Narratives help people see why change matters and how to respond.

Scenario planning, when approached as a living process rather than a one-time project, becomes a unifying and transformative force. PostNL’s journey shows that foresight, when embedded in strategy and culture, turns uncertainty into opportunity.