Between signal and imagination: finding the sweet spot in strategic foresight

Strategic foresight is often described as both an art and a science — and for good reason. On one hand, it demands discipline: scanning signals, tracking patterns, and drawing conclusions from data. On the other, it requires imagination: the ability to ask “what if,” to envision futures that don’t yet exist, and to explore possibilities that defy linear thinking.

The tension between these two modes of thinking — evidence and intuition, signal and speculation — sits at the heart of every meaningful foresight effort.

Why grounding foresight in data matters

In our pursuit of enabling even more grounded and actionable foresight, we recently introduced a new signal source in FIBRES: FIBRESEED Patents, now covering more the most recent international patent applications, with new ones added every week. Patent filings offer some of the earliest tangible indicators of innovation, providing insight into where R&D investments are heading and which technologies are beginning to take shape.

This addition reflects a broader movement in the field — one where foresight professionals increasingly seek to base their strategies on observable trends and validated signals. While the infinitely prolific generative AI can give quick answers to any question, it is patent data, scientific publications, and real-world weak signals that help establish a credible foundation for strategic conversations. They make it easier to justify priorities, track emerging developments, and engage stakeholders who prefer evidence over intuition.

The case for creative speculation

Yet if you rely only on signals like these — no matter how robust — your foresight risks becoming narrow or overly reactive. Hard data alone rarely captures discontinuities, paradigm shifts, or truly novel developments. These often begin as speculative ideas, unconventional hypotheses, or creative provocations. That’s where human imagination plays its vital role.

Scenario narratives, design fictions, and speculative foresight tools give us permission to stretch beyond the immediate horizon. They allow us to explore the unknown, test our assumptions, and envision possibilities not yet supported by hard evidence. This kind of creative thinking helps teams imagine alternate futures — ones where transformation occurs in unexpected ways.

Why you need both

Balancing these two dimensions — the empirical and the imaginative — is one of the most important and subtle skills for any foresight professional. Too much emphasis on signal can lead to incrementalism and strategic inertia. It may make the future appear knowable, linear, and controllable. On the other hand, over-reliance on blue-sky thinking can create outputs that lack credibility or relevance, making it difficult to engage decision-makers or drive meaningful action.

The most effective foresight work happens when both perspectives are integrated. Signals like patents, news pieces, and other data give structure and confidence. Imagination opens space for creativity, empathy, and transformative thinking. Together, they create a foresight process that is both defensible and visionary, capable of informing strategy while also inspiring it.

Reflecting on your own balance

The right balance between signal and imagination isn’t fixed — it evolves with context, audience, and purpose. When strategy teams need credibility, strong signals matter. When teams are stuck in present-day thinking, imagination might be the more valuable input.

As you reflect on your own foresight work, consider these questions:

• Are you leaning too heavily on either evidence or intuition?
• How do you make room for creative thinking in a data-driven culture?
• Do your stakeholders value proof more than possibility — or vice versa?
• How might your foresight outputs change if you pushed further into the opposite mode of thinking?

Embracing the hybrid mindset

There’s no single formula for balancing signal and imagination — but there is power in holding both with equal respect. At FIBRES, we believe foresight should be grounded in real-world signals and empowered by bold thinking. That’s why we continue to expand the tools and data sources available in our platform, while keeping the space open for scenario-building, sense-making, and shared visioning.

The future can’t be predicted. But it can be shaped — by those who are willing to stand at the intersection of what is known and what is possible. If you're looking for a foresight platform to support both your data collection and creativity, why not book a demo today.