In 2021, Thijs Coenraadts, Strategy Manager at PostNL’s cross-border e-commerce business unit, led an initiative that would later prove to be a turning point in the company’s strategic direction.
Thijs set out to explore long-term scenarios and implications for the business, a first for the organization. One of those scenarios, which envisioned a fragmented global future and a resurgence of regional self-sufficiency, seemed improbable at the time. Today, it mirrors the world PostNL’s cross border unit operates in.
What began as a bold foresight experiment has since become embedded in the unit’s strategy. Through structured scenario work, actionable insights, and the right tools, PostNL has moved from reaction to readiness and proved that foresight, done right, can drive real organizational impact.
This is the story of PostNL succeeding in building and embedding actionable foresight.
The catalyst for PostNL’s foresight journey was the COVID-19 pandemic. Like many companies, PostNL experienced dramatic market shifts, particularly in e-commerce, as consumers turned en masse to online shopping.
While the boom was beneficial, it brought with it a realization: change was happening faster and more unpredictably than ever. “We realized we couldn’t count on the future to look like the past,” said Thijs. “There were just too many moving pieces in our markets.”
PostNL’s strategy team knew that the existing methods that were based largely on extrapolating current trends wouldn’t be enough. They needed to explore a range of possible futures, understand their implications, and prepare to act accordingly.
With no prior experience in scenario planning, the team decided to learn by doing.
Starting from scratch, Thijs and his colleague began with intensive external research. They scanned news reports, reviewed market analyses, read academic literature, and conducted interviews with experts, customers, and internal stakeholders.
The goal was to identify the trends that could shape their environment over the next seven years. Not too far to be speculative, but far enough to stretch thinking.
This process surfaced a broad array of micro, meso, and macro trends. To make sense of them, the team grouped the trends and structured their thinking using a two-axis framework. The dimensions they chose were economic growth versus stagnation, and market consolidation versus decentralization, common axes used in futures work.
From this matrix, four future scenarios emerged. Among them was one called Support Your Locals, a scenario in which global trade breaks down, countries look inward, and supply chains become more regional. At the time, it felt like the least likely of the four.
“Who would have thought that regions would turn away from globalization? That was hard to imagine in 2021,” Thijs reflected. “But we made the scenario anyway just in case.”
The scenarios were not just academic exercises. For each of the four possible futures, Thijs and his team conducted structured opportunity and risk analyses. What threats might emerge? What new value could be created?
From this, they generated a list of strategic options, and more importantly, identified “no regret” bets: actions that would be beneficial in any future.
This body of work ultimately shaped real strategic decision-making. But it also raised a new challenge: sustainability. The process had taken over eight months of full-time work. While the outcome was valuable, repeating this kind of work regularly with the same intensity simply wasn’t feasible.
“We didn’t have a foresight department or a large innovation team,” Thijs explained. “It was just two of us. We had to find a way to scale what we built without scaling our workload.”
To make their foresight process sustainable, Thijs and his colleague Blaise Francisco began looking for a tool that could help with continuous trend tracking, sensemaking, and communication. After evaluating multiple platforms, PostNL chose FIBRES.
“We talked to several vendors, but what stood out with FIBRES was the flexibility,” Thijs explained. “Other tools offered fixed packages and standard templates. FIBRES gave us the freedom to adapt the setup to our needs and workflows.”
With FIBRES, the team could collect and organize trend signals, maintain a dynamic trend radar, and connect trends to strategic implications—all within one centralized platform. They also enabled company-wide access through SSO, and embedded foresight into presentations, dashboards, and everyday conversations.
“FIBRES helped us turn foresight into something living, visible, and collaborative. It became part of how we think, not just a one-time project,” said Thijs.
One of the unexpected but important outcomes of this work was how it helped unify the organization. Before building the scenarios, different business models and departments had different interpretations of the future and different strategic priorities.
“Everyone was taking action, but not always in the same direction,” said Thijs. “When we developed these shared scenarios and linked them to concrete strategic responses, it created a common language and focus.”
Foresight became a tool not only for anticipation, but for alignment. It provided the context and rationale that teams needed to coordinate effectively across business areas.
From the beginning, Thijs and Blaise were determined not to let foresight become a static report. Instead, they treated it as something that needed to be seen, used, and questioned by more people in the company. By embedding FIBRES into their internal systems and making trend radars available to all employees, they opened up foresight for broad participation.
“Strategy is not just for directors,” said Thijs. “Everyone needs to understand where we’re heading and why. The best way to do that is to show people the trends we’re seeing and the thinking behind our decisions.”
This shift from PowerPoint to participatory foresight helped democratize futures thinking across the company and turn strategy into a shared story.
In 2025, PostNL announced an updated company-wide strategic direction. Among the growth pillars was a focus on expanding the company’s European cross-border presence . This decision was directly informed by the Support Your Locals scenario, which by then had begun to materialize.
“The world moved in exactly the direction we had once considered unlikely,” said Thijs. “Because we had thought through that scenario in advance, we already had a game plan. We were ready to move.”
That alignment between foresight and action, and external change and internal strategy is perhaps the most powerful outcome of PostNL’s foresight work.
And it wasn’t just for the strategy team or executive leadership.
“We realized that if you want people to buy into a strategy, they need to understand the ‘why’ behind it,” said Thijs. “That’s where foresight comes in. It helps you tell the full story, from what’s happening in the world, to how your company should respond.”
Thijs’s advice for other strategy, innovation, or foresight professionals is simple: start small, and don’t wait for perfection.
“You don’t need to be a foresight expert to begin,” he said. “We weren’t. We just started reading, learning, and talking to others. You can borrow methods and adapt as you go.”
He also emphasized the importance of integrating foresight into strategy and not treating it as a separate, theoretical exercise.
“It’s not about making pretty scenarios that sit on a shelf. It’s about using those scenarios to make better decisions. When you link foresight to real strategic moves, that’s when it becomes valuable.”
Perhaps most importantly, he stressed the power of storytelling. For foresight to matter, it has to connect with people.
“You need to be able to say: here’s what’s happening in the world, here’s why it matters to us, and here’s what we’re doing about it. That story makes foresight real.”
Foresight has become more than a capability at PostNL. It’s a mindset. In a world of increasing uncertainty, volatility, and acceleration, the ability to anticipate and prepare for change is no longer optional.
“There’s probably never been a better time to do scenario thinking than now,” Thijs said. “The world is dynamic, and that makes foresight not just relevant but essential.”
By embedding foresight into its strategy and culture, PostNL has shown what’s possible. And as one of their least likely scenarios becomes reality, they’re proving that the best way to face the future is to prepare for it, especially the parts you least expect.
Inspired by PostNL’s journey? You can build the same kind of strategic foresight capability starting right where you are today.
FIBRES helps teams around the world to excel in practical, actionable, and sustainable futures intelligence. No complex setup. No foresight jargon. Just a flexible, easy-to-use tool designed to make foresight work for your organization.
Want to see how it works? Book a personalized demo and explore how FIBRES can help you anticipate change, align your team, and act with confidence.